On February 5, 2010 ·
22,000 jobs were eliminated by the U.S. private sector during January according to an ADP payroll report released a couple of days ago. The figure released on Wednesday is the smallest decline for a monthly total since Feb. 2008, and this improved performance undoubtedly stirs up an inkling that a recovering job market may be growing upon the Arizona horizon line.
The Phoenix market has felt the brunt of a 3 year long slide in consumer confidence and the reduced spending by businesses, while tourism declined and Arizona’s heavy reliance on a strong real estate market to drive other economic growth was undeniably exposed.
AZ bank owned properties and inventories of HUD owned homes are falling at such a steady pace, the familiar M.O. of the Valley’s large home construction companies can be seen again as building permit activity rises 10% from Dec. to January, while public builders begin buying up improved parcels in anticipation of a market which appears to be stabilizing.
Existing home prices are beginning to show actual strength, a far cry from the once faint pulse that could barely be felt across the vast Metro Area. Now we watch and wait for when and if banks will start lending money to home builders.
On January 29, 2010 ·
2009 capped a record year for U.S. foreclosures as filings spiked in December hitting 350,000, while the 12-month calendar total is estimated at 2.8 million. This after the real estate industry saw 4 months of consecutive declines in filings beginning August of ‘09. The speculation remains that the numbers would have been far worse if not for industry and legislative delays in processing loan defaults and delinquencies, so the backlog for lenders filing actions for first quarter 2010 will continue to grow.
The state of Arizona accounted for 6% of the Nation’s total foreclosure filings… rounding out the top 3 Nationwide.
Home Building is down 85% since 2005…
Unemployment is at 9.1%…
Home values declined 50% in nearly 3 years…
There’s really no sugar coating it… times have been tough on many. But historically speaking, it’s often been the rough patches in our capitalist free markets that has provided the platform for acquiring high value assets at bottom dollar.
Let us not forget how we’ve come to be the wealthiest nation on the planet… will and perseverance, hard work and jumping on opportunity.
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On January 20, 2010 ·
Selling a house will soon become easier for fix and flip investors, while buyers stand to also gain by a recent regulation ease. HUD currently restricts availability of an FHA insured loan if the seller has held title less than 90 days. HUD Secretary Shaun Donavon announced on Friday that this policy will be waived for a period of 1 year beginning February 1st 2010. This waiver will expand access to FHA lending programs to allow quick resale of foreclosed homes. This should give buyers greater access to low priced remodeled homes that they couldn’t purchase before.
FHA is generally the only option for buyers who don’t have the 20% down payment needed to secure a conventional mortgage. In tight credit markets, many borrowers turn to these programs because of the low down payment requirements. The waiver should help absorb an expected early year spike in foreclosure inventory.
The determination by HUD is clear, this action will ‘help facilitate the return of repaired and habitable properties to the market in a timely fashion.’ *
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On January 13, 2010 ·
In early December 2009, the Treasury Department outlined a new program designed to standardize and streamline the short sale process nationwide. A short sale is when a homeowner attempts to sell the property below the payoff amount of all the combined secured notes. The seller will often times market the property at a significantly reduced price in hopes of attracting a buyer. This is often a last ditch effort to sell the property before a bank foreclosure or trustee sale. If a buyer for the home is found, a fully executed contract will be sent to the bank for consideration. The contract is contingent upon bank approval. It sounds easy enough, but successfully closing on that bargain property may be next to impossible with all the variables that can possibly kill the deal.
An experienced real estate agent is the first ingredient to a successful short sale. Follow up is extremely important along with making sure the sellers short sale package is complete with all supporting documentation as well as a hardship letter. Communication with the banks asset manager is paramount. The agent needs to know exactly what the lender is looking for in terms of buyer and seller documentation as well as the net proceeds required to get notice of approval, which is the final step before you can even open escrow. Sometimes the lender will come back with a counter offer that is unreasonable to the buyer. Meanwhile, approximately 3-6 months have passed and the home still hasn’t progressed towards a sale. This is if the buyer doesn’t completely lose patience and write an offer on another property.
The new streamlining plan incorporates uniform documentation to be filled out instead of local specific addendum’s and notices. Financial incentives include:
- Sellers get $1500 to offset moving costs after the sale
- Buyers or investors receive $1000
- Mortgage servicer receives $1000
- Junior lien holders receive $3000
- Real estate agents get to keep their full commissions instead of settling for a reduced amount as required by the bank
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On January 9, 2010 ·
Investors and first-time buyers are responsible for driving the Phoenix Metro housing market’s median home values to their highest since December of ‘08, moving 3.4% in November to $142,700.
Cash buyers accounted for more than 31% of all November sales according to DataQuick, while total sales rose to 10,482, up 62% from the same time last year.
Phoenix MSA
| Number of sales |
Nov-08 |
Nov-09 |
%Chng |
| Resale houses |
3,934 |
6,299 |
60.1% |
| Resale condos |
322 |
815 |
153.1% |
| New homes |
1018 |
1430 |
40.5% |
| All homes |
5,274 |
8,544 |
62.0% |
Source of Chart
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On December 24, 2009 ·
As lenders become overwhelmed by the 7.5 million American homes in foreclosure or borrowers defaulting on their mortgages, it becomes increasingly difficult for these banks to fully comprehend the value of properties they are foreclosing on. They often turn to local realtors and other brokers of the industry to help them determine a minimum dollar figure. But even with this aid, and due to the fact that banks would hardly draw any interest from investors or occupancy home buyers by setting opening bids at a property’s current loan balance, properties often wind up being auctioned off at Maricopa County (Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa, Gilbert, Chandler, Peoria, Cave Creek, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Glendale, Goodyear, El Mirage, Surprise, Litchfield Park, Tolleson, Sun City, Buckeye, Tonopah, Carefree, Gila Bend, Avondale, Wickenburg, Youngtown) trustee sales for prices below estimated market value.
With an estimated 639,000 bank owned and mortgage investor properties for sale across the U.S., not including the thousands more that go to sheriff or trustee sales every day, house flipping is making a comeback, especially across Arizona, California, Nevada and Florida, the areas that have been hit hardest by collapse of the housing market.
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On December 16, 2009 ·
In November, 61% of the Phoenix Valley’s residential real estate transactions were foreclosures and resales of previously foreclosed homes. Median Home prices are at $143k, up from $140k in October, while resales hit 5300, up from 3400 this same time last year.
According to ASU’s Associate Professor of Real Estate Jay Butler,
…the foreclosure rate will pick up after the first of the year because of the continued weak job market and frustration on the part of homeowners struggling to pay their mortgages… We’re in an economic recovery, but it’s an anemic recovery; and more layoffs may be coming.
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On December 9, 2009 ·
Hal Feinberg has found a nice niche in the Valley of the Sun fixing and flipping single family residences. In fact, he’s sold 28 of 31 homes purchased at Phoenix Trustee Sales this year. But even with the nice chunk of change he’s been making on each property, his desires have been changing… “I’d like to get back to buying and holding.”
It isn’t any mystery what Feinberg has in mind, he wants to create positive cash flow by renting out more of the homes he purchases. This probably means Feinberg is generating enough cash by quickly flipping homes to fore-go the 18%, 80/20 LTV ratio hard money loans in favor of dropping cold cash on the next several properties he picks up at Phoenix Valley trustee auction sales.
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On December 3, 2009 ·
Federal regulation 24 CFR Part 203.37 restricts FHA Mortgage Insurance from being issued on a property that is re-sold less than 90 days from the acquisition date of the seller. This rule has been in place since 2003 to prevent fraudulent lending and flipping schemes. An example of this would be a buyer, seller, mortgage broker, and appraiser working together to artificially inflate the value of a home that results in a sale while the buyer lets the property foreclose and all parties split the profits. This is fraud, and should be harshly prosecuted. But the vast majority of property flippers engage in lawful and ethical practices when it comes to their business.
The FHA has waived this rule for lenders or state agencies that have acquired the property through a foreclosure action. This leaves property investors very much in the cold. The misconception is that flipping is illegal. This couldn’t be further from the truth.
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On November 17, 2009 ·
Nationally, 332,292 properties received notices of default or were seized by banks in October. Distressed real estate accounted for more than 30 percent of total transactions in the 3rd quarter, while median home prices fell another 10%+ across the U.S.
“The foreclosure problem is still with us and will keep prices down,” Stephen Miller, chairman of the economics department at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas, said in an interview. “The real issue is we don’t know what inventory banks are holding that they have yet to put on the market.”
Now is the time to start pumping money into Phoenix Valley real estate properties. According to several real estate ‘market analysis’, the bottom of barrels may be approaching, with the time-frame of March ‘10 when home values start to recover.
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